A year ago, few people had heard of the term credit crunch, but the phrase has now entered dictionaries.
Defined as “a severe shortage of money or credit”, the start of the phenomenon has been pinpointed as 9 August 2007 when bad news from French bank BNP Paribas triggered sharp rise in the cost of credit, and made the financial world realise how serious the situation was.
The problems, however, started much earlier. GROWING SUB-PRIME PROBLEMS
After a two year period between 2004 and 2006 when US interest rates rose from 1% to 5.35%, the US housing market begins to suffer, with prices falling and a rise in homeowners defaulting on their mortgages.
Default rates on sub-prime loans – high risk loans to clients with poor or no credit histories – rise to record levels.
APRIL-AUGUST 2007: SUB-PRIME CONTAGION
April
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The credit losses associated with sub-prime have come to light and they are fairly significant…Some estimates are in the order of between $50bn and $100bn of losses |
New Century Financial, which specialises in sub-prime mortgages,
As it sold on many of its debts to other banks, the collapse in the sub-prime market begins to have an impact at banks around the world.
July
Investment bank Bear Stearns tells investors they will get little, if any, of the money invested in two of its hedge funds after rival banks refuse to help it bail them out.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke follows the news with
AUGUST 2007: SCALE OF THE CREDIT CRISIS EMERGES
9 August 2007
|
BNP’s statement is scary, to put it mildly |
Investment bank BNP Paribas tells investors they will not be able to take money out of two of its funds because it cannot value the assets in them, owing to a “complete evaporation of liquidity” in the market.
It is the clearest sign yet that banks are refusing to do business with each other.
The European Central Bank
. It adds a further 108.7bn euros over the next few days.
The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan also begin to intervene.
17 August
by half of a percentage point to 5.75%, warning the credit crunch could be a risk to economic growth.
21 August
UK sub-prime lenders begin to withdraw mortgages or put up the cost of borrowing for UK homeowners with poor credit histories.
28 August
German regional bank Sachsen Landesbank faces collapse after investing in the sub-prime market;
SEPTEMBER 2007: A RUN ON A BANK
3 September
German corporate lender IKB
4 September
The rate at which banks lend to each other rises to its highest level since December 1998.
The so-called
banks either worry whether other banks will survive, or urgently need the money themselves.
13 September
|
The fact that it has had to go cap in hand to the Bank is the most tangible sign that the crisis in financial markets is spilling over into businesses that touch most of our lives |
The BBC reveals Northern Rock has asked for and
in the latter’s role as lender of last resort.
Northern Rock relied heavily on the markets, rather than savers’ deposits, to fund its mortgage lending. The onset of the credit crunch has dried up its funding.
A day later depositors withdraw £1bn in what is
They continue to take out their money until the government steps in to guarantee their savings.
18 September
The US Federal Reserve
19 September
After previously refusing to inject any funding into the markets,
OCTOBER 2007: MAJOR LOSSES BEGIN TO EMERGE
1 October
Swiss bank UBS is the world’s first top-flight bank to
The chairman and chief executive of the bank step down. Later, banking giant Citigroup unveils a sub-prime related loss of $3.1bn. A fortnight on Citigroup is forced to write down a further $5.9bn. Within six months, its stated losses amount to $40bn.
30 October
Merrill Lynch’s chief
NOVEMBER 2007: UK HOUSING MARKET ‘TURNS DOWN’
29 November
The Bank of England
30 November
The Council for Mortgage Lenders (CML)
saying that without more funding available on financial markets, mortgage lenders will not be able to offer as many mortgages.
DECEMBER 2007: HELP IS AT HAND
6 December
US President George W Bush
The Bank of England cuts interest rates by a quarter of one percentage point to 5.5%.
13 December
The US Federal Reserve
The Bank of England calls it an attempt to “forestall any prospective sharp tightening of credit conditions”. The move succeeds in temporarily lowering the rate at which banks lend to each other.
17 December
The central banks continue to make more funding available.
and, the following day, $500bn from the European Central Bank to help commercial banks over the Christmas period.
NEXT UP: THE BOND INSURERS
19 December
Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s downgrades its investment rating of a number of so-called monoline insurers, which specialise in insuring bonds. They guarantee to repay the loans if the issuer goes bust.
There is concern that insurers will not be able to pay out, forcing banks to announce another big round of losses.
9 January 2008
The World Bank
as the credit crunch hits the richest nations.
18 January
A rush to withdraw money from its commercial property funds
for investors wanting to take their money out.
It blames the rush of withdrawals on concerns about the US sub-prime mortgage collapse, recession worries and interest rates.
21 January
Global stock markets, including London’s FTSE 100 index,
22 January
The US Fed
- its biggest cut in 25 years – to try and prevent the economy from slumping into recession.
It is the first emergency cut in rates since 2001. Stock markets around the world recover the previous day’s heavy losses.
31 January
A major bond insurer MBIA,
-blaming its exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
FEBRUARY – MARCH 2008: BIG NAME CASUALTIES
7 February
US Federal Reserve boss
saying he is closely monitoring developments “given the adverse effects that problems of financial guarantors can have on financial markets and the economy”.
The Bank of England cuts interest rates by a quarter of one percent to 5.25%.
8 February
|
Some investors forgot the golden rule of financing: ‘Don’t buy things that you don’t understand’ |
In the UK, the latest
its highest level since 1999.
10 February
Leaders from the G7 group of industrialised nations say worldwide losses stemming from the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market could reach $400bn.
17 February
After considering a number of private sector rescue proposals, including from Richard Branson’s Virgin Group,
7 March
In its biggest intervention yet,
to try to improve liquidity in the markets.
17 March
Wall Street’s fifth-largest bank,
in a deal backed by $30bn of central bank loans.
A year earlier, Bear Stearns had been worth £18bn.
28 March
Nationwide
revising its previous forecast of no change in prices.
APRIL 2008: THE 100% MORTGAGE IS CONSIGNED TO HISTORY
2 April
Moneyfacts, which monitors financial products,
in the previous seven days.
|
I have a deep sense of shock at how deeply our successful industry has already been hit by these unprecedented funding market conditions |
Five days later the 100% mortgage disappears when
8 April
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which oversees the global economy,
It says the effects are spreading from sub-prime mortgage assets to other sectors, such as commercial property, consumer credit, and company debt.
10 April
The Bank of England cuts interest rates by a quarter of one percent to 5%.
11 April
A warning is issued by the CML that the amount of funding available for mortgages in the UK could be cut in half this year.
|
The effects of the credit crunch are likely to be broader, deeper and more protracted than previously expected |
15 April
Confidence in the UK housing market
according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, because of the “unique liquidity blight”.
But it does add that the situation is good news for buyers with large deposits who can buy property that was previously out of reach.
21 April
The Bank of England announces details of an
by allowing them to swap potentially risky mortgage debts for secure government bonds.
APRIL – JUNE 2008: BANKS PASS ROUND THE HAT
22 April
Royal Bank of Scotland
with a £12bn rights issue – the biggest in UK corporate history.
The firm also announces a write-down of £5.9bn on the value of its investments between April and June – the largest write-off yet for a British bank.
25 April
Persimmon becomes
citing the lack of affordable mortgages and a fall in consumer confidence.
It adds sales have fallen by a quarter since the beginning of the year.
|
Because of the uncertainties in the global economy and the UK lending environment, it is difficult to predict when the [housing] market will improve |
29 April
The CML says
, the lowest monthly number since records began in 1999.
30 April
The first
is recorded by Nationwide.
Prices were 1% lower in April compared to a year earlier after a “steep decline” in home buying over the previous six months.
Later in the week, figures from the UK’s biggest lender Halifax, show a 0.9% annual fall for April.
2 May
More than
government figures show, a rise of 54% on the previous year. Retail and construction firms are hardest hit.
22 May
Swiss bank UBS, one of the worst affected by the credit crunch,
to cover some of the $37bn it lost on assets linked to US mortgage debt.
19 June
There are significant developments in two major credit crunch-related investigations in the US, which it is hoped will restore confidence in the credit markets.
The FBI
as part of a crackdown on alleged mortgage frauds worth $1bn.
Separately,
linked to sub-prime mortgages.
It is alleged they knew of the funds’ problems but did not disclose them to investors, who lost a total of $1.4bn.
25 June
Barclays
to bolster its balance sheet.
The Qatar Investment Authority, the state-owned investment arm of the Gulf state, will invest £1.7bn in the British bank, giving it a 7.7% share in the business. A number of other foreign investors increase their existing holdings.
JULY 2008: MAJOR LENDERS ON THE EDGE
8 July
The gloomy findings of a survey of its members
within months.
Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 stock index briefly dips into a “bear market”, in which the market suffers a 20% fall from its recent highs.
|
The outlook is grim and we believe that the correction period is likely to be longer and nastier than expected |
13 July
- the second-biggest bank in US history to fail.
14 July
Financial authorities
As owners or guarantors of $5 trillion worth of home loans, they are crucial to the US housing market and authorities agree they could not be allowed to fail.
The previous week, there had been a panic amongst investors that they might collapse, causing their share prices to plummet.
21 July
Just
because they are priced higher than existing shares are trading on the stock market.
But HBOS still gets the £4bn it wanted, as the unsold new shares are bought by the issue’s underwriters.
31 July
UK house prices
a decline of 8.1%.
The average home now costs £169,316. That is nearly £15,000 cheaper than in the same month last year.
Meanwhile, HBOS reveals that profits for the first half of the year sank 72% to £848m, while bad debts rose 36% to £1.31bn as customers failed to repay loans.
AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2008: GIANTS SUFFER
4 August
Global banking giant HSBC
after suffering a 28% fall in half-year profits.
Of Europe’s top banks, HSBC has among the heaviest exposure to the troubled US housing and credit markets.
22 August
The bad news continues with revised figures from the ONS revealing that the UK economy is a standstill.
28 August
Nationwide reveals that UK house prices have fallen by 10.5% in a year.
A day later
blaming surging mortgage arrears for a rise in impairment.
Looking ahead, it warned it expected arrears to remain at high levels for the rest of the year.
30 August
Chancellor Alistair Darling
in an interview with the Guardian newspaper, saying the current downturn would be more “profound and long-lasting” than most had feared.
1 September
Official figures from the Bank of England show a slump in approved mortgages for July.
Meanwhile, while
and two-year lows of $1.80.
2 September
In an effort to kick-start the UK housing market
from £125,000 to £175,000.
But there is more bad news, as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts that the UK will be in a full blown recession by the end of the next two quarters. A day later the European central bank cuts growth forecast 2009 to 1.2% from 1.5%.
4 September
The Bank of England leaves rates on hold at 5% while the latest figures from the Halifax show that house prices in England and Wales continue to fall.
5 September
A raft of negative news from around the world
The US labour market figures – which showed the unemployment rate rising to 6.1% – were a further jolt to investors who have had to swallow a slew of poor economic data in recent days.
6 September
The Halifax
Chief executive Andy Hornby explains that British banks will continue to suffer major problems in offering loans until they can raise significant sums on wholesale markets, something that will not be possible until US house prices recover.
7 September
Mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – which account for nearly half of the outstanding mortgages in the US -
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the two firms’ debt levels posed a “systemic risk” to financial stability and that, without action, the situation would get worse.
At the same time, in the UK, the Nationwide announces it will merge with two smaller rivals, the Derbyshire and Cheshire Building Societies.
9 September
More bad news emerges for the UK economy as the ONS reveals manufacturing output fell by 0.2% between June and July, raising a real fear of recession.
Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium reports UK retail sales values fell by 1.0% on a like-for-like basis from August 2007.
On the housing front, there were more negative headlines with the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors
while the CML reported that the number of first-time buyers has hit its lowest level since its survey began in January 2002.
10 September
Wall Street bank Lehman Brothers posts a loss of $3.9bn for the three months to August.
The announcement comes against a background of further dire economic warnings from the European Commission, which
15 September
After days of searching frantically for a buyer,
becoming the first major bank to collapse since the start of the credit crisis.
Former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan dubs failure as “probably a once in a century type of event” and warns that other major firms will also go bust.
Meanwhile fellow US bank
for $50bn, the latest twist in a dramatic turn of events on Wall Street.
16 September
The US Federal Reserve
to save it from bankruptcy. AIG gets the loan in return for an 80% public stake in the firm.
17 September
Britain’s biggest mortgage lender
creating a banking giant holding close to one-third of the UK’s savings and mortgage market. The deal follows a run on HBOS shares.
25 September
In the largest bank failure yet in the United States, Washington Mutual, the giant mortgage lender which had assets valued at $307bn is
Analysts say much of its problems have been caused by the group’s 2006 purchase of mortgage lender Golden West for $25bn at the height of the then US housing boom.
28 September
The credit crunch hits Europe’s banking sector as the European banking and
It is seen as too big a European bank to be allowed to go under.
Authorities in the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg agree to pour in 11.2bn euros ($16.1bn; £8.9bn). Fortis’ share price has fallen sharply amid concerns about its debts.
In the US lawmakers announce they have reached a bipartisan agreement on a rescue plan for the American financial system.
The package, to be approved by Congress, allows the Treasury to spend up to $700bn buying bad debts from ailing banks.
It will be the biggest intervention in the markets since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
29 September
In Britain the
The British government takes control of the bank’s £50bn mortgages and loans, while its savings operations and branches are sold to Spain’s Santander.
The Icelandic government takes control of the country’s third-largest bank Glitnir after the company had faced short-term funding problems.
Wachovia, the fourth-largest US bank, is bought by its larger rival Citigroup in a rescue deal backed by the US authorities. Under the deal, Citigroup will absorb up to $42bn of Wachovia losses.
The US House of Representatives rejects a $700bn rescue plan for the US financial system – sending shockwaves around the world.
It opens up new uncertainties about how banks will deal with their exposure to toxic loans and how credit markets can begin to operate more normally. Wall Street shares plunge, with the Dow Jones index slumping 7% or 770 points, a record one-day point fall.
30 September
as the deepening credit crisis continues to shake the banking sector.
After all-night talks the Belgian, French and Luxembourg governments said they would put in 6.4bn euros ($9bn; £5bn) to keep it afloat.
Separately,
.
In the UK, Prime Minister Gordon Brown says the government is planning to raise the limit on guaranteed bank deposits from £35,000 to £50,000.
1 October
which eventually approves an amended $700bn financial rescue bill.
Market confidence that Lloyds TSB’s takeover of HBOS will not be derailed by stock market volatility sees HBOS shares rise 20%.
A report says that French Finance Finister Christine Lagarde calls for an emergency EU bail-out fund for banks threatened with failure.
The EU says it is looking at whether Ireland’s full guarantee of saving deposits is anti-competitive.
3 October
The US House of Representatives
The 263-171 vote was the second in a week, following its shock rejection of an earlier version on Monday.
The UK’s City watchdog, the Financial Services Authority (FSA)
6 October
Germany announces a
The deal to save Hypo Real Estate, reached with private banks, is worth 15bn euros more than the first rescue attempt, which fell apart a day earlier.
World stock markets
.
The
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s had earlier said that no German savers would lose any money. But it emerges that this was a was a political pledge, rather than one which would see it change laws on banking deposits.
However Denmark had already responded by giving a 100% guarantee on savings, while Sweden increased its protection levels.
The country’s largest banks agree to sell off some of their foreign assets and bring them home.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/7521250.stm
Published: 2008/10/06 10:52:53 GMT
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